Markets

12 markets
Geopolitics
New

Will the UN Security Council expand its permanent members in 2026?

YES chance 14%
Yes 14¢ No 86¢ 0 OXC
Geopolitics
New

Will Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations in 2026?

YES chance 30%
Yes 30¢ No 70¢ 0 OXC
Geopolitics
New

Will a G20 nation leave a major trade bloc in 2026?

YES chance 16%
Yes 16¢ No 84¢ 0 OXC
Geopolitics
New

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test in 2026?

YES chance 35%
Yes 35¢ No 65¢ 0 OXC
Geopolitics
New

Will Taiwan and China hold official talks in 2026?

YES chance 22%
Yes 22¢ No 78¢ 0 OXC
Geopolitics
New

Will a new nuclear arms-control treaty be signed in 2026?

YES chance 18%
Yes 18¢ No 82¢ 0 OXC
Geopolitics
New

Will the US and China hold a leaders' summit in 2026?

YES chance 52%
Yes 52¢ No 48¢ 0 OXC
Geopolitics
New

Will the EU impose a major new sanctions package in 2026?

YES chance 60%
Yes 60¢ No 40¢ 0 OXC
Geopolitics
New

Will OPEC+ cut oil production again in 2026?

YES chance 47%
Yes 47¢ No 53¢ 0 OXC
Geopolitics
New

Will a new member join BRICS in 2026?

YES chance 38%
Yes 38¢ No 62¢ 0 OXC
Geopolitics
New

Will a major ceasefire be signed in an active conflict in 2026?

YES chance 40%
Yes 40¢ No 60¢ 0 OXC
Geopolitics
New

Will NATO admit a new member state in 2026?

YES chance 25%
Yes 25¢ No 75¢ 0 OXC