Markets

16 markets
Politics
New

Will Mexico's president face a recall vote in 2026?

YES chance 28%
Yes 28¢ No 72¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will the US debt ceiling trigger a standoff in 2026?

YES chance 50%
Yes 50¢ No 50¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will Italy's government change in 2026?

YES chance 36%
Yes 36¢ No 64¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will a sitting EU head of government lose a confidence vote in 2026?

YES chance 33%
Yes 33¢ No 67¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will the US pass major immigration legislation in 2026?

YES chance 24%
Yes 24¢ No 76¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will a new country adopt ranked-choice voting nationally in 2026?

YES chance 20%
Yes 20¢ No 80¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will a US president's approval rating top 50% in 2026?

YES chance 40%
Yes 40¢ No 60¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will Canada call a federal election in 2026?

YES chance 38%
Yes 38¢ No 62¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will a sitting G7 leader resign in 2026?

YES chance 47%
Yes 47¢ No 53¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will the UK hold a general election in 2026?

YES chance 27%
Yes 27¢ No 73¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will Argentina dollarize its economy by 2027?

YES chance 23%
Yes 23¢ No 77¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will Brazil's president face impeachment proceedings in 2026?

YES chance 26%
Yes 26¢ No 74¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will the US federal government shut down in 2026?

YES chance 36%
Yes 36¢ No 64¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will Japan change prime minister in 2026?

YES chance 45%
Yes 45¢ No 55¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will France hold snap legislative elections in 2026?

YES chance 34%
Yes 34¢ No 66¢ 0 OXC
Politics
New

Will Germany's governing coalition collapse in 2026?

YES chance 31%
Yes 31¢ No 69¢ 0 OXC